The recent gubernortorial elections in Ekiti and Osun States has given an indication of the trend to expect in the 2015 presidential elections.
The hundreds of thousands of votes gained by the PDP in the gubernotorial elections if replicated in the presidential elections, will only make the coast clear for another 4 year term for GEJ.
If APC wants to seriously wrestle power at the center from the ruling PDP, then they really have to up their game. Don't get me wrong! I am not an advocate of GEJ's continuity, rather, my prayers and desire is to have a selfless, patriotic leader who will run the country as his/her entire constituency. A leader that will fight to a standstill, or at least reduce to a bearest minimum, the level of corruption and/or stealing, a leader that will ensure strong and disciplined institutions are ran, a leader that will ensure adequate security for the citizens and a leader that will ensure evenly spread development.
The ruling party has to a large extent, over the years, subtly promoted a divide and conquer strategey using religion, ethnicity, region, use of state power to intimidate opponents and the use of money and other material inducements( The CBN of recent indicated worries that election spendings may increase inflation). The divide and conquer strategy is a trend that is found all over the world but it varies in degree as to the factors employed and its effectiveness lies in the level of awareness in a society. In climes like ours, where there is widespread poverty and illiteracy/ignorance, it is used fully to achieve political goals. Having looked at the above, let's forecast the outcome of the presidential elections based on the Nigerian peculiarities. (This piece presupposes that GEJ will run and the main opposition will field a Northerner, which is the likely outcome of the 2015 elections.)
There are 36 States in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, with the FCT, where elections are expected to be conducted in 2015. (If normalcy eventually returns to the 3 states under the SOE, otherwise elections will be conducted in 33 States).
The SS and SE regions are the natural strength of the President and he is easily expected to get/alloted 95% of the votes. (Amechi factor may hinder GEJ from getting 100%).
In the SW region, the influence of religion and region will play a vital role to the advantage of GEJ. ( FFK and Metuh have started the game. They portray the main opposition party as "JANJAWEED", almajiri party and the military wing of Boko Haram). GEJ will loose in 4 of the SW states but not with a wide margin. He will make up for his lost with victories in Ekiti and Ondo States. (Fayose and Mimiko factor).
Religion will be the key factor to be used in the North Central States as has been the trend in previous elections. There has been a delibrate use of religion in politics in the North in general, so much so that, a persons religious affiliation gives his allegiance to which candidate he/she will vote for. Another card is the minority card. The North Central States are a conglomeration of minority tribes, who had been made to believe they are under the shadow of the majority Hausa/Fulani. To tow the line of a Hausa/Fulani rulership is to perpetually remain under their shadow. Voting anyone other than Hausa/Fulani will be better. Looking at these two factors, GEJ will win in Benue and Plateau States by wide margin majorly due to religious influence and State might. Nasarawa State will be a close call this time around but religion will definitely play a part. Kogi state will be GEJ's to loose as the trend has shown previously. This is because no state in the region has political manipulation so pronounced as in Kogi State. Kwara State will be fall for APC due majorly to Bukola Saraki factor. The margin may not be much because Federal might may be used in cornering Saraki into making "political concessions".(The State will be yours but we will get a significant chunk of the presidential votes, otherwise you'll face EFCC). Niger will be the only State the opposition will get a clear cut victory, judging by the trend shown in previous elections.
The Northwest, which has the greatest voter population in the country is also where serious political manipulations are carried out. This largely owes to the widespread poverty and illiteracy that is prevailant in the States. Even with the re-alignment of political equation, in which Kano and Sokoto States now belonging to the opposition, PDP will still make a great showing. The political awareness in this region is only in the cosmopolitan areas where it is difficult to manipulate the outcome of votes.(Recall the VP, Namadi Sambo, never won in his polling unit in the last elections). Politics in this clime is played in the rural areas, where due to widespread poverty and ignorance, voters can be influenced to vote for as low as #200 monetary inducement. Ruling party stalwarts will ensure that they get significant percentage of the votes to ensure a respectful showing. People will be jubilating over the euphoria of winning but the consequences is that GEJ, through the influence of State might will easily get an average of 25% of the total votes cast. This added to his SS and SE votes together with NC and SW votes, will already guaranty him a victory. The NE has a similar peculiarity as the NW but this time around, the factors of religion and minority card will be played. The Christian population in Borno, Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe and Bauchi States will definitely align with GEJ. This has been the trend in previous elections.
If one is to assess the politics of 2015 on the above, it is just a matter of time that GEJ will be in power again till 2019. Readers may dismiss this as a mere postulation that is devoid of verifiable facts, but, having known the type and trends of politicts in these climes, there is no way one can divorce politicking with sentiments of religion, ethnicity, use of state power and manipulation before, during and after elections.
GEJ will win convincingly in the 11 States of the SS and SE, 2 States in the SW, 3 States in the NC plus FCT, non in NW, and 2 in NE, bringing the total states to 18.
The opposition needs to do a lot within a short time to overcome these challenges, otherwise there may not be another chance to dislodge the PDP from the grip of power at the center.
The road to yet another PDP victory is just a matter of time, not because they had performed, but because they have succeeded in perfecting a divide and conquer strategy, hinging on sentiments.
BabaZau Shettima is an advocate for Good Governance and has a deep rooted passion for an egalitarian society. He can be reached through e-mail, baazau@gmail.com or followed on twitter @baazau.
