TWENTY QUESTIONS FOR IG SULEIMAN ABBA.

1. Was the IG part of the National Council of Defence meeting chaired by Mr President which agreed on the need to extend the State of Emergency in the troubled N.E States?

2. Was the Attorney General and Minister of Justice part of the meeting?

3. It is a constitutional requirement that the President forwards a request to both houses of the National Assembly through their Principal officers, the Senate President and the Speaker of the House. Was the IG aware that such letter had been forwarded to the National assembly?

4. In his oral submission to the House Committee on Police affairs on Wednesday 26th November 2014, the I.G refused to acknowledge Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal as the speaker of the house, citing that there is a pending issue before the courts with respect to the Speakers eligibility and therefore he will not delve into a matter that is subjudice. The question here is, did he raise the issue during the National Defence Council meeting that recognising Hon Tambuwal as the Speaker of the house was wrong and gave a better suggestion?

5. Has the IG been served with a court order or ruling detailing that Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal has lost his seat and that such order or ruling should be enforced?

6. Is the IG aware that Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal received the letter from Mr President on behalf of the members of the House of Representatives?

7. If Mr President doesn't recognise Hon Tambuwal as Speaker, why would he write to the Speaker since the matter according to the IG is in the courts.

8. The Speaker reconvened the house from a recess so as to deliberate on Mr President's request for an extension of the SOE in the three N.E States. Was the IG aware that most members acknowledged and reconvened that day? These members cut across party lines and include principal officers.

9. Is the IG aware of any member of the HOR and by extension the Senate that does not recognise and acknowledge Hon. Tambuwal as the Speaker of the House?

10. Did the members of the HOR, irrespective of party affiliation attend the session despite not acknowledging Hon. Tambuwal as Speaker?

11. Is the IG aware that Hon. Tambuwal, along with other members of the HOR were denied entry into the Parliament by security forces for several hours, necessitating them to force themselves in?

12. Why did the security forces deny the Speaker and other members of Parliament that came along with him entry, even after submitting themselves for identification for several hours.

13. Why did the officer captured on the footage refused to acknowledge Tambuwal even after identifying himself(Tambuwal) but rather chose to disregard him (Tambuwal)?

14. In his submission to the House Committee on Police, the IG said that tear gas accidentally exploded when "thugs"crossed the gate and started to molest the policemen and that only one canister exploded. Has the IG studied the footage which shows tear gas were shot by his men in a deliberate manner?

15. The IG referred to the persons that crossed over the gate as thugs, why did his men not arrest them since they are breaching the law?

16. The spokesperson for the police force earlier gave the forces' reasons for barricading the Parliament as security reports received that thugs will invade the National Assembly. How many of the thugs came and how many were arrested?

17. The IG stated during the House Committee hearing that on the 19th of November 2015, members of a political party including their leadership, aspirants etc (obviously referring to the APC) barricaded the headquarters of the Nigeria Police Force and made threats to invade national Institutions which included the National Assembly. Why did the IG not order their arrest or invite them for questioning? Is the force not supposed to be proactive since they have intelligence at their disposal?

18. The argument presented by some of the I.G supporters make reference to section 68(1)(g) of the constitution of Nigeria which points that legislators that change parties loose their seats, unless there exist a division in their parties or the change is as  a result of a merger. The section according to the supporters, is "self triggering", therefore, the IG is duty bound to uphold the law, hence the removal of Tambuwals' security and by extension, he (IG) not recognising Hon. Tambuwal as a member of the HOR. Is the IG hinging his action towards Tambuwal on this section of the constitution? If so, is the IG an enforcer or an interpreter of the Law?

19. If section 68(1)(g) is what the IG hinges his action on not recognising Hon. Tambuwal as the speaker as well as a legislator, why has he not extended same to other legislators both Federal and State, cutting across party divide that have switched political parties? Is the IG selective in enforcing the Law?

20. Does the Action of the police under the leadership of the IG, goes in line with the passion and zeal he stated earlier to have a police force that will imbibe the tenets of democratic principles and culture?

BabaZau Shettima is an advocate for Good Governance and has a deep rooted passion for an egalitarian society. He can be reached through e-mail, baazau@gmail.com or followed on twitter @baazau.

INSTITUTIONALIZED DIVIDE AND CONQUER: WHY GEJ MAY WIN IN 2015.

The recent gubernortorial elections in Ekiti and Osun States has given an indication of the trend to expect in the 2015 presidential elections.
The hundreds of thousands of votes gained by the PDP in the gubernotorial elections if replicated in the presidential elections, will only make the coast clear for another 4 year term for GEJ.
If APC wants to seriously wrestle power at the center from the ruling PDP, then they really have to up their game. Don't get me wrong! I am not an advocate of GEJ's continuity, rather, my prayers and desire is to have a selfless, patriotic leader who will run the country as his/her entire constituency. A leader that will fight to a standstill, or at least reduce to a bearest minimum, the level of corruption and/or stealing, a leader that will ensure strong and disciplined institutions are ran, a leader that will ensure adequate security for the citizens and a leader that will ensure evenly spread development.
The ruling party has to a large extent, over the years, subtly promoted a divide and conquer strategey using religion, ethnicity, region, use of state power to intimidate opponents and the use of money and other material inducements( The CBN of recent indicated worries that election spendings may increase inflation). The divide and conquer strategy is a trend that is found all over the world but it varies in degree as to the factors employed and its effectiveness lies in the level of awareness in a society. In climes like ours, where there is widespread poverty and illiteracy/ignorance, it is used  fully to achieve political goals. Having looked at the above, let's forecast the outcome of the presidential elections based on the Nigerian peculiarities. (This piece presupposes that GEJ will run and the main opposition will field a Northerner, which is the likely outcome of the 2015 elections.)
There are 36 States in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, with the FCT, where elections are expected to be conducted in 2015. (If normalcy eventually returns to the 3 states under the SOE, otherwise elections will be conducted in 33 States).
The SS and SE regions are the natural strength of the President and he is easily expected to get/alloted 95% of the votes. (Amechi factor may hinder GEJ from getting 100%).
In the SW region, the influence of religion and region will play a vital role to the advantage of GEJ. ( FFK and Metuh have started the game. They portray the main opposition party as "JANJAWEED", almajiri party and the military wing of Boko Haram). GEJ will loose in 4 of the SW states but not with a wide margin. He will make up for his lost with victories in Ekiti and Ondo States. (Fayose and Mimiko factor).
Religion will be the key factor to be used in the North Central States as has been the trend in previous elections. There has been a delibrate use of religion in politics in the North in general, so much so that, a persons religious affiliation gives his allegiance to which candidate he/she will vote for. Another card is the minority card. The North Central States are a conglomeration of minority tribes, who had been made to believe they are under the shadow of the majority Hausa/Fulani. To tow the line of a Hausa/Fulani rulership is to perpetually remain under their shadow. Voting anyone other than Hausa/Fulani will be better. Looking at these two factors, GEJ will win in Benue and Plateau States by wide margin majorly due to religious influence and State might. Nasarawa State will be a close call this time around but religion will definitely play a part. Kogi state will be GEJ's to loose as the trend has shown previously. This is because no state in the region has political manipulation so pronounced as in Kogi State. Kwara State will be fall for APC due majorly to Bukola Saraki factor. The margin may not be much because Federal might may be used in cornering Saraki into making "political concessions".(The State will be yours but we will get a significant chunk of the presidential votes, otherwise you'll face EFCC). Niger will be the only State the opposition will get a clear cut victory, judging by the trend shown in previous elections.
The Northwest, which has the greatest voter population in the country is also where serious political manipulations are carried out. This largely owes to the widespread poverty and illiteracy that is prevailant in the States. Even with the re-alignment of political equation, in which Kano and Sokoto States now belonging to the opposition, PDP will still make a great showing. The political awareness in this region is only in the cosmopolitan areas where it is difficult to manipulate the outcome of votes.(Recall the VP, Namadi Sambo, never won in his polling unit in the last elections). Politics in this clime is played in the rural areas, where due to widespread poverty and ignorance, voters can be influenced to vote for as low as #200 monetary inducement. Ruling party stalwarts will ensure that they get significant percentage of the votes to ensure a respectful showing. People will be jubilating over the euphoria of winning but the consequences is that GEJ, through the influence of State might will easily get an average of 25% of the total votes cast. This added to his SS and SE votes together with NC and SW votes, will already guaranty him a victory. The NE has a similar peculiarity as the NW but this time around, the factors of religion and minority card will be played. The Christian population in Borno, Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe and Bauchi States will definitely align with GEJ. This has been the trend in previous elections.
If one is to assess the politics of 2015 on the above, it is just a matter of time that GEJ will be in power again till 2019. Readers may dismiss this as a mere postulation that is devoid of verifiable facts, but, having known the type and trends of politicts in these climes, there is no way one can divorce politicking with sentiments of religion, ethnicity, use of state power and manipulation before, during and after elections.
GEJ will win convincingly in the 11 States of the SS and SE, 2 States in the SW, 3 States in the NC plus FCT, non in NW, and 2 in NE, bringing the total states to 18.
The opposition needs to do a lot within a short time to overcome these challenges, otherwise there may not be another chance to dislodge the PDP from the grip of power at the center.
The road to yet another PDP victory is just a matter of time, not because they had performed, but because they have succeeded in perfecting a divide and conquer strategy, hinging on sentiments.

BabaZau Shettima is an advocate for Good Governance and has a deep rooted passion for an egalitarian society. He can be reached through e-mail, baazau@gmail.com or followed on twitter @baazau.

GEJ and Greatness

The media of recent is awash with campaigns portraying President Goodluck Jonathan as a great leader and as the only alternative to take Nigeria  to the proverbial promised land. He is equated to be at par with great world leaders and global shapers like Mahatma Ghandi, Martin Luther King, Lee Kwan Yew and Barrack Obama.
To possess the quality of a great leader influencing men towards positive change, I will like to borrow from the criteria used by a great United States psychoanalyst and professor in the Chigaco University, Jules Masserman.
Set of qualities that make a leader great in the degree that the marketers of GEJ want him to be seen should not be based on fancies and prejudices. Besides, these campaigns are bankrolled by "political investors" who hope to be compensated with juicy appointments and other favours,( though I see no fault in that if round pegs will be placed in round holes.)
Jules Masserman does not want us to depend on our fancies and prejudices: he wants to establish objective standards for judging before we confer greatness upon anybody. He says that "leaders must fulfill three functions":
1. The leader must provide for the well being of the led.
The leader whoever he/she is must be genuinely interested in the welfare of the generality of the people irrespective of their ethnic background, region, political affiliation, social class or religious leanings. Do we see that under GEJ's Government? I urge the reader to make an objective assessment.
2. The leader or would be leader must provide social organisation in which people feel relatively secure.
In other words, the leader must ensure that the people he leads or intends to lead develop confidence that, with him/her at the helm of affairs, they will feel secure. Are we in Nigeria now secured or feel secure under this Government? Some argue that insecurity currently facing the nation did not start under GEJ's watch, rather it predated him and therefore, he should not be blamed for the current situation. As a leader, one is not elected to solve problems that only emanated during his/her reign. Nonetheless, security and how it is handled is a topic for another time.
3. That the leader must provide his people with one set of beleifs.
Beliefs in this context does not equate to religion. A belief of pride in a nation, love for country, love for unity, love for development, passion for positive advancement as a nation, a belief to be the envy of other nations. Great leadership means ability to move masses of men towards unity and development.
The Great leaders of the world we hear of, respect and revere, to a large extent fulfilled these criteria. Does GEJ possess these qualities to be equated along with the world's great leaders and global shapers? It is for us to ponder objectively and give our assessment of GEJ's capacity to be termed great as his image makers want him to be.

BabaZau Shettima is an advocate for Good Governance and has a deep rooted passion for an egalitarian society. He can be reached through e-mail, baazau@gmail.com or followed on twitter @baazau.